According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, bitcoin miners are expected to liquidate $5 billion in BTC following the halving. He predicts that the overhang from this selling could last four to six months, during which Bitcoin might experience a sideways trend, as seen after past halvings.
With the halving approaching on April 20, Thielen suggests that the markets may not see a significant upward trend until around October, based on historical patterns. Thielen also notes that miners prefer to stockpile BTC, causing a supply/demand imbalance and potentially leading to a rally in Bitcoin prices leading up to the halving.
The increase in Bitcoin value has already been observed, with a 74% rise in 2024 to a record high of $73,734 on March 14, followed by a decrease to below $63,000 in mid-April. Despite speculation about a potential altcoin rally post-halving, Thielen points to historical evidence suggesting that such a rally typically starts around six months later.
Zooming into specific mining operations, Thielen mentions Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, which has accumulated an inventory likely to be gradually sold post-halving to avoid a sharp drop in revenue. With Marathon currently mining approximately 28-30 BTC per day, post-halving, this could add up to 133 days of additional supply to the market, with an ongoing production of 14-15 BTC per day.
If all miners adopt a similar strategy, Thielen predicts that the market could see up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin being sold each day post-halving, potentially reversing the supply-demand imbalance driving the recent price rally. As the halving will reduce the amount of Bitcoin that miners can earn each day for validating transactions, Bitcoin’s current price could result in revenue losses of around US$10 billion a year for the industry as a whole.
This impending change has led industry analysts like Matthew Kimmell and Alvin Kan to anticipate a larger bullish cycle following the Bitcoin halving, despite potential short-term volatility. Kan also believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to be a major factor in the market’s dynamics, especially given the recent approval of ETFs by the SEC and the resulting influx of $56.27 billion into the market, which contributed to Bitcoin reaching its all-time high in the bull market.
Kan foresees a positive ETF flow after the halving, as investors seek to benefit from the historical positive impact of halving on Bitcoin’s price.