The ETF approval, which has been a huge success, has attracted capital into the market and essentially brought forward what could have been the price appreciation we typically would have seen three to six months post halving. Fred Thiel acknowledges the role of ETF approvals in the current market dynamics and suggests that Bitcoin’s rally may not be fully exhausted, hinting at potential further growth post-halving.
Despite the upcoming halving’s implications for reducing Bitcoin’s supply and cutting miners’ rewards, Thiel expressed enthusiasm. The upcoming halving will reduce Bitcoin’s supply by about 450 BTC per day and cut miners’ rewards for block production by half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Thiel expressed excitement about the halving, noting that prices have gone up rather than declining prior to the halving, which maximizes benefits for miners. Thiel estimated that post-halving, Marathon’s break-even rate would hover around $46,000 per Bitcoin to maintain profitability.